One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.
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The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.
The Pause – politically useful though it may be to all who wish that the “official” scientific community would remember its duty of skepticism – is far less important than the growing discrepancy between the predictions of the general-circulation models and observed reality.
NOAA, in a very rare fit of honesty, admitted in its 2008 report that 15 years or more without global warming would demonstrate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.
The reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.
The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1.1 C° per century during the period of the Pause from January 1997 to September 2015.